The Macro Corner

Big companies are holding the stock market for now…cracks are showing slowly

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My votes for the week are in!

Dont forget to vote. The more we vote the more relevant it becomes. Dont be ashamed if you are not experts thats the entire point…vote for the companies you like, have heard of or think could do well. Dont overthink it.

1millions joes are better than experts thats what we are about to prove…VOTE VOTE VOTE

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Here is my core macro view.

We are about to witness a massive and sustained drop in Inflation.

I could invite you to look at commodity prices, high frequency indicators like retail sales or my favourite the money supply all heading lower BUT no I wont.

I think the AI revolution we are entering now is the equivalent of the Amazon, Google revolution we experienced after 2010. Amazon and Google created deflation for goods prices
AI and its derivatives (self driving systems) will create deflation for services prices.

You need a lawyer to draw a letter to sue your neighbour? actually no need Chat GPT did it…you need a new logo for your company? Actually no need DALL•E just did it…you get the picture.

Basics intellectual services are about to be reshuffled just like grocery shopping has been.
This will be the true driving of deflation for years to come…

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  Frapadoc

  12 months ago

  Totally agree with this.

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  Frapadoc

  12 months ago

  My point would be, how to position yourself to invest early on that incoming future..

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  Optimus Prime

  12 months ago

  @frapadoc on the stocks front you want tomanything AI related. GPU designers like Nvidia or semi conductors TSMC , ASML to only mention a few. On the rates side I

  Tagged Users: frapadoc.

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  Optimus Prime

  12 months ago

  On the rates side buy Bonds and other products to bet on lower rates.

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  Optimus Prime

  12 months ago

  I think what Tesla is doing is very interesting as well. Their goal is to go for free cars” self driven and they collect all the data. This is for me the ultimate AI application that would kill transport costs and labour costs.

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$Meta doing well much better results than expected. Ads revenues are up

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The treasury is running out of money to pay back maturing bonds and interests.

Tbills maturing around the so called anticipated fiscal cliff are trading at a premium. Early June expected point of impact, it can be meaningful for the market if we end up with government shutdown and default or partial default.

Some people are speculating that Treasury could default on the papers own by the FED only. The FED would mark a loss (but who cares) and it would extend the run down by a few weeks/months.

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  Macrokurd

  1 year ago

  Whilst markets aren't worried about the 'default' aspect, there are significant macro repercussions. At a time of slowing growth but more importantly tightening lending standards and credit contraction, many in the public sector will likely get much more adversely affected than previous debt ceiling episodes.

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  Optimus Prime

  1 year ago

  @macrokurd any shock around fiscal cliff will reignite the “end of the USD dominance” rethoric

  Tagged Users: macrokurd.

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