Biotech Bookie
Drug analysis and pharma stock speculation
@javadoc via Biotech Bookie.
Had a fun week in Boston at the Bio conference paying special attention to small companies making some big waves.
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Breakdown of some of these companies, and companies I'm already invested in to come soon.
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Macrokurd
10 months, 1 week agoAppreciate your insights. Some great analysis on names I would never have looked at.
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Optimus Prime
10 months, 1 week agoVery good looking ;)
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Optimus Prime
10 months, 1 week agoLooking forward to your insights as always !
@javadoc via Biotech Bookie.
002. Royalty Pharma ($RPRX)
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Just thought I’d show the interesting business of Royalty Pharma. This company pioneered the royalty business in pharmaceuticals and functions exactly like you’d think royalties would work in something more familiar like the music business where the artist (or their label) gets a part of the sales of records, shows, merchandise, etc.
They provide funding and counsel with their board packed with physicians and long-time pharmaceutical leaders to companies which need some help to get through the later stages of clinical trials in exchange for a percentage of the top-line sales should they succeed. This enables RPRX to mitigate their exposure to the early-stage development risk while still being able to profit from the longevity of products, non-cyclical revenues, and the high barriers to entry. They’ve acquired royalties on 35 commercial products resulting in $3.2 billion dollars in royalty receipts in 2022, up from $2.6 billion in 2021 (breakdown attached *numbers represented in thousands*).
This company exists in a space between a financial services company and a pharmaceutical consulting firm and found a method to dominate the space. From 2012 on, 60% of all royalties on pharmaceutical belong to RPRX and then when looking the largest deals (>$500 million), 86% of them belong to Royalty Pharma. In the same time period (2012 – 2023) they’ve been able to complete $24 billion in transactions, their closest competitor in the same timeframe is estimated to have done about $3 billion. Royalties on pharmaceutical products are still uncommon but seeing how profitable and successful this company is, I would only expect wider adoption.
This company just reminds me that there are entire industries generating billions of dollars, that you may have never heard of.
Check out the company if it interests you and let me know what you think of this business model.
Tagged Tickers: RPRX.
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Optimus Prime
10 months, 2 weeks agoVery often the least sexy business are the best ! Thanks for making us discover another gem!
@javadoc via Biotech Bookie.
001. Eli Lilly & Co. ($LLY)
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Q1 2023 revenue decreased by 11% as we're winding down from the lucrative business the larger big pharma companies were able to take advantage of in the pandemic. LLY saw a 1.47B$ decrease in revenue due to COVID-19 antibody sales alone.
While their revenue YOY has taken an 11% hit (6.96B from 7.81B), excluding the decline in antibody sales, there has been a 10% increase in revenue as a result of their diverse range of approved products (seen in the attached image).
They've also been seeing some meaningful progress in their drug pipeline with positive results in their Mounjaro phase III study (obesity medication) showing a 15.7% average weight reduction when compared to a placebo. This drug is a GLP-1 receptor agonist which you may have been hearing in the media as the weight loss "hack" taken by celebrities, but this class of drugs really is a revolutionary tool to combat obesity across the globe. Please don't let supermodels taking this drug to lose some extra weight discredit the value of these drugs.
I'll be keeping an eye on how the Donanemab (Alzheimer's medication) preclinical trial results are going as there is a void in the marketplace for effective medication for this disease and the first companies to make them can expect billions in revenue from that drug alone. Early studies have seen that 47% of participants on this drug had no clinical progression by the end of the year 1 compared to 29% on a placebo. The medication is an antibody targeting the Tau protein, which in Alzheimer's is thought to be a contributing factor in disease progression as these proteins clump up and form neurofibrillary tangles responsible for a portion of the neurodegeneration seen in patients.
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Opinion:
Firstly, I will try to avoid giving definite buy/sell advice in the aims of facilitating discussions about particular companies and the effectiveness of their medications.
Looking at the price history of this company actually makes me nauseous thinking about how much money I could have made if I was conscious of this sector years earlier (I do not recommend going through it).
I also tend to focus on smaller market cap companies as a significant drug discovery from smaller companies have drastic effects on the stock price.
Companies that are well established and are consistently owning a significant share of the drug market are of the safer to own in this notoriously volatile sector. This company is a behemoth in the space with a 410 billion dollar market cap, tens of thousands of employees (much of them smarter and with more experience than me when it comes to the nuances of getting a medication through a drug trial) with a diversified pool of approved drugs and drugs in their pipeline. This is not the company you will see meteoric rise or fall, which is commonplace for the smaller market cap companies.
On another note, it would be stupid to not mention how the elections of the next US president might bring this sector under scrutiny. Candidates from both sides of the aisle have concerns with how this sector has profited from the pandemic and the main targets will be those who profited the most so please be careful when planning the timeframe of your investments (when to get in and for how long).
Please feel free to point out what I am missing that may make this a definite buy or sell in your eyes in the comments.
Tagged Tickers: LLY.
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Optimus Prime
11 months agoAbsolutely incredible analysis and level of details. Really happy to have joined your flock! I dont have your degree of expertise regarding new drugs discoveries and pipelines, I will make two points thi:
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Optimus Prime
11 months ago -
Optimus Prime
11 months ago2 points:
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Optimus Prime
11 months ago1- the bigger the better against politicians. If your fear going to elections is that it gets political you want to go for the best market cap that have a strong lobbying power rather than emerging companies. Ofc if you have a strong view on a discovery, but everything equal I would go for thr big ones. 2- i think your sector is amazing to invest at this moment of the economic cycle it shouldnt be too correlated to cyclicals. You could imagine a strategy where you go long a bunch of biotech vs short SPX. I think it makes a lot of sense ahead of potential government shutdown.
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javadoc
11 months ago@optimus When thinking about the big vaccine products coming from Pfizer and the like, I don't think it would be far-fetched to see politicians making it a staple part of their platform to investigate their business practices to accelerate the development of their products. Seeing how politicized the response to the pandemic has become, I just think there will be some impact on the stock price if companies fall under government investigation/scrutiny.
Tagged Users: optimus. -
Optimus Prime
11 months ago@javadoc yea I think you right its the kind of headlines grabbing populist headlines politicians love.
Tagged Users: javadoc.
@javadoc via Biotech Bookie.
Thought I should start a flock on here where people can share their thoughts about biotech and pharma stocks.
I'm a longtime student of biochem so hopefully I can provide a bit of insight into what it's like working on the bench and how we think in the lab.
Drop the ticker symbols of pharma companies you think I should look into and I'll give you my thoughts.
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LB
11 months agoThis is great!
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Richard Hendricks
11 months agoYou will be a great asset to this community!
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Optimus Prime
11 months agoWhich biotech companies do you think we should watch st the moment? Tks
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Macrokurd
11 months agoGreat flock. Most of us prob don't know much about this sector. Quick question if I may. How should we be thinking of AI in this sector (as it's the topic du hour). Are there some good plays that are ahead of the game in this aspect?
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Optimus Prime
11 months ago@javadoc I guess now I know what will be one of your vote this week !!! :)
Tagged Users: javadoc.
