United States Oil Fund, LP

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude spot price, as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), hovered below $80 a barrel on Monday, remaining relatively stable despite significant geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Indeed, natural gas prices have experienced a substantial increase, although for different reasons. Henry Hub front-month futures for June delivery, as closely followed by the United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE:UNG), surged by over 4% to $2.64/MMBTu, marking the highest level since Jan. 19, 2024. The price has escalated by 40% since the beginning of May, making it the strongest monthly performance for natural gas since July 2022. Chart: US Natural Gas Eyes Best Monthly Performance In Nearly Two Years Latest Geopolitical Events In Middle East The International Criminal Court (ICC) has requested arrest warrants for top Israeli officials, including President Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister ...Full story available on Benzinga.com

Related tickers: UNG, USO, CHK, EQT.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Cooler Inflation Data Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that the stock market is breaking out above the resistance zone. The chart shows a highly unusual occurrence – RSI is at 100. This is the most extreme overbought level. The extreme overbought level indicates that either the stock market is ready for another strong up leg, or the breakout is going to fail. Sentiment is extremely positive. At extremes, sentiment is a contrary indicator. In plain English, extreme positive sentiment is a sell signal. However, it is important to remember that sentiment is not a precise timing indicator. In The Arora report analysis, based on the other macro and fundamental data, there is about a 40% probability that the breakout will fail even though technicals are very strong. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came slightly cooler than expected. Here are the details: Headline CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus. Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus. As most investors are elated over the CPI number, prudent investors need to remember that on an annualized basis, core CPI is still 3.6%. The Fed’s target is 2%. Further, prudent investors need to remember that goods inflation is coming down due to over production in China, but services inflation is still sticky.    The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales. Here is the latest retail sales data. Headline retail sales came at 0.0% vs. 0.4% consensus. Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus. Retail sales data shows that the consumer is finally pulling back. This will negatively impact earnings. In the long run, the single best determinant of the stock market is earnings. However, at least for today, elated investors are not thinking far ahead about earnings. It is said that copper has a Ph.D. in economics. That is why it is called Dr. Copper.  When the economy is booming, demand for copper goes up. In recessions, demand for copper drops. Copper futures in New York just hit a new high. Copper is also heavily used in electric vehicles and solar panels. Heavy demand for electricity by artificial intelligence data centers will also increase copper demand. In The Arora Report analysis, the new high in copper is ...Full story available on Benzinga.com

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